UK Construction Forecast 2017 – 2020

Date of publication: December 2016

The report provides a construction forecast for all sectors of the UK construction sector 2017 – 2020 as well as including historic data to enable you to analyse long term patterns. In addition we provide tables and graphs to identify key trends and changes in the market.

Our construction industry forecast is a regular report that has been published for the last 25 years. It is one of the more highly respected in the industry with subscribers coming from a range of sectors related to the construction sector including manufacturers, contractors, distributors, consultancies and service companies.

To purchase a copy,  please click on the button below. You can then either pay via Paypal or credit card. Once you have paid, the report will be automatically sent via email. If it doesn’t arrive, please check your junk mail folder or if you have any problems please call us on 01252 279990.

The cost of a report is £160 plus VAT (£192) although if you would prefer us to invoice you then please call or email. However, there will be an additional £30 charge if you require an invoice.

Buy now

Why you should buy the Construction Industry Forecast

The construction forecast report will help you to:

  • Develop more accurate sales & budget forecasts
  • Identify growth sectors in the construction market
  • Control your cost base by matching your resources to demand
  • Develop your business and marketing plans
  • Focus your marketing activities in the right sectors.

A few examples of companies recently purchasing the report include: Balfour Beatty, Brett Martin, Grafton Group,  John Sisk, Miller, Mott MacDonald, NG Bailey, Openreach, PWC, Travis Perkins,  Willmott Dixon and Wolseley Group.

Sectors Included in the Construction Market Forecast

The report provides construction output actual and forecast figures for 2008 – 2020 by sector in constant 2013 prices as well as tables and graphs illustrating longer term trends and key changes. The following 9 sectors are covered:

  • Housing – public
  • Housing – private
  • Infrastructure (eg transport, utilities)
  • Public (eg education, health)
  • Industrial (eg warehouses, manufacturing)
  • Commercial (eg offices, retail, leisure)
  • Repair & Maintenance housing – public
  • Repair & Maintenance housing – private
  • Repair & Maintenance – non housing sector.

We also include the key forecasts for the UK economy sourced from HM Treasury. This includes GDP, inflation, unemployment and Public Sector Net Borrowing – all inputs to our construction forecast.

Contents of Construction Industry Forecast

The following tables are included in the report:

  • Total construction output by sector 2011 – 2020
  • Growth by industry sector up to 2020
  • Housing starts, completions and transactions – actual and forecast to 2020
  • Total construction output long term trend
  • % split of construction output by sector 2016
  • % share of construction output by region 2015/16
  • UK Economic forecast
  • Graph for each individual construction sector showing actual and forecast output 2008 – 2020
  • Brief note on forecast performance for each sector
  • Explanation of what construction activity is included in each sector

Forecasting Methodology and Report

Our construction output forecast is produced using a series of causal forecasting models, time series analysis and qualitative research of key indicators, opinions and surveys in the construction and building products industry. The historical construction output data is provided by the Office of National Statistics.

We have been producing forecasts for the construction industry for over 25 years and they are used by a wide range of companies to help in their planning and budgeting.

Press Release for Construction Forecast, December 2016

Total GB construction output volume in 2017 is forecast to grow by 1.3% compared to 2016, according to the construction research specialists Leading Edge. This takes total output to £136.4bn in 2017, at 2013 prices.

Since its last forecast in March 2016, Leading Edge has downgraded its expectations for 2017 from 3.5% growth to 1.3%, a cut of around £3.5bn on total output. This is mainly due to a reduction in expectations in growth for the overall economy and uncertainties surrounding Brexit. Output in the offices sector is expected to be hit while the retail sector continues to suffer from the growth of online trading. Housing growth forecasts have also been cut back, although they are still positive.

Leading Edge expects to see 2016 finish with a similar total output to 2015 after a disappointing third quarter where the impact of Brexit caused some delays in building projects. There have been some notable declines in output in Public Housing, Infrastructure and the Industrial sector during the year although these 3 sectors are expected to bounce back in 2017.

Mel Budd, Director at Leading Edge, said “the latest government figures on new orders for Q3, the first full quarter post Brexit, showed growth of 5.5% on the previous year although it was down on Q2 by 2.4%. Although new orders do not always result in actual output, the year on year growth is a good sign and in particular Infrastructure is looking like it will deliver growth next year”.

Leading Edge forecasts that total construction output in 2020 will be 8% higher than 2016 after excluding the effects of inflation. Infrastructure will be a key growth area, where the government’s recent announcements in the Autumn statement will help boost output. In addition the initiatives in the housing sector will help offset the impact of reduced overall growth in this important sector. Meanwhile they expect total housebuilding to grow with completions heading for around 180,000 pa by 2020.

Mel Budd added, “although the GDP forecasts for the UK have recently been downgraded, the UK economy is still relatively sound, and GDP forecast growth is similar to the Euro zone where expectations are 1.5% for 2017 and 1.7% for 2018. However, there are downside risks for UK construction, relating mainly to Brexit and international factors, although we haven’t yet seen any significant reductions in activity.”

Purchasing the Construction Output Forecast

To purchase a copy,  please click on the button below. You can then either pay via Paypal or credit card. Once you have paid, the report will be automatically sent via email. If it doesn’t arrive, please check your junk mail folder or if you have any problems please call us on 01252 279990.

The cost of a report is £160 plus VAT (£192) although if you would prefer us to invoice you then please call or email. However, there will be an additional £30 charge if you require an invoice.

Buy now